I have tried repeatedly to avoid making any serious political statements besides the allowances of the few words that a Facebook update permits but the times call for one because I see the despondency, the desperation and the near lack of faith demonstrated by Nigerian politicians in the opposition attaining damaging dimensions. I have often disregarded the thought that we could have an opposition devoid of the usual internal wranglings, bickerings and manifest political aggression as we have seen in the historical politics of our dear country Nigeria and have often been disappointed. Against very personal expectations, I believed that the Buhari-Bakare presidential ticket on the platform of the CPC was the ticket to right the many wrongs our dear country had suffered. I also believed that the vibrancy of youth as demonstrated by Ribadu and the socio-economic balance represented by Adeola on the ACN ticket was another worthy political combination. I am however disappointed that we retain the erroneous impression that a divided opposition can provide the capacity for a run-off in the 2011 presidential elections.
While the results of elections were trickling in at dusk on saturday the 9th of April 2011, the day that the National Assembly elections held, my Blackberry was abuzz with "cheering news" about how the PDP had been upturned in the elections. Tinubu perfected his art and reclaimed the south west for the ACN and only news about PDP's losses was news. And the question on my mind was 'is the change here now?' I waited in measured caution knowing the kind of country I lived in. I also recall telling friends to be careful not to confuse results declared at polling booths as final results. That said, Facebook from the Nigerian angle was all about results of polling units. As a matter of fact, my friends who ordinarily would pay no dime for anything political became e-returning officers. 'Results' were everywhere like LASTMA officials and in our usual style and pattern began to hail the electoral process as overseen by Professor Atahiru Jega, the wise one who has had the fortune of having his name become a Nigerian verb, as 'free and fair'. So we went to town hailing a process which outcomes we were yet unsure of.
That in itself held a trap - free and fair elections? Well, the losers at the elections were now hushed, silenced by the drowning praises sounding out that the elections were like June 12. Yours sincerely described it as Nigeria's first and we went rejoicing when we heard polling unit results showing that the PDP had been battered. Saharareporters described the elections as 'shock and awe'. I mean how would Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP lose in the Aso Rock presidential villa? That was like saying the Devil was fasting under Maurice Iwu's INEC. Where, for instance in the world does that ever happen? We were however counting chicks while the hens were mating. The results of the elections as I type this note are 75% in favour of the PDP and the rest political parties in the country sharing 25%. That result as it stands today represents NIGERIA. Our very own dear land where it is a surprise to be surprised. We have explanations the world has never seen. We have bus drivers driving in the most reckless fashion without hurt. We have millions living in darkness with beaming smiles in the day. We have suffering people but no, leadership is a divine allotment, so we must not question the gods! And then we parry away our commonwealth with explanations that I long to fully understand in the life hereafter.
Smarting from recorded losses, it was apparent that the CPC was not as powerful as thought. The ACN was indeed for me the huge surprise as it claimed seats in PDP territories with relish and uncommon ease. I was quite impressed. The story and explanation I got about the performance of the CPC was that there was an understanding to have the North vote Buhari at the presidential elections and while I retained my doubts, I was hopeful that some degree of change would have been achieved in the country. I have however been a consistent advocate for an alliance between the CPC and the ACN to tackle the whittling influence of the PDP headlong. All the talks have failed till now and it beats me to figure out why! The North West and North East are supposed to provide Buhari leverage but I do not see Goodluck Jonathan having a poor showing there either. As a matter of opinion, I see him coming second in these two regions of the country. So if Goodluck Jonathan maintains second position (if the elections are not landslide victories in favour of Buhari-Bakare) will Buhari be able to record same in areas where Goodluck Jonathan has strength or the near neutral areas like the North Central?
Goodluck will certainly win the South South, the South East and the North Central. That leaves the South West, the North East and the North West for grabs between Jonathan, Buhari and Ribadu. If Buhari wins the North East and North West, the only other region that can give him an approximate political draw remains the South West. The South West may however be Buhari's waterloo. Ribadu the ACN candidate has the South West as the only region he is sure of winning under the current political situation in my opinion. If Ribadu holds the votes of the South West, then Goodluck Jonathan by virtue of the average showing he will likely enjoy in the North will emerge winner after the numbers of saturday's presidential elections. If any alliance however sees the South West votes going to Buhari, then a likely Buhari victory scenario emerges. In the absence of an alliance, Goodluck Jonathan may well be on his way to his election to the exalted office of Nigeria's president in a few days from now. I don't see Ribadu having a particularly strong pan Nigeria showing.
The ACN's national leadership is however undoubtedly corrupt too and I only see Buhari and Bakare as the symbols of integrity at the national level within the CPC. While the PDP retains the leadership position on corruption affairs, I know Goodluck Jonathan will have a sterling performance as president. The regret however will be that he may only be able to achieve just a third of his best intentions under a PDP government. That may be the punishment on us for indolence over the years. The pride and arrogance of Buhari and Tinubu will not allow the much needed unseating of the PDP. The core institutional elements of these parties too suffer the disease of ineptitude and corruption existing in our national mental psyche, else why wouldn't the ACN and the CPC come together? They seem to be in a drunken stupor, failing to understand the times.
I was called by an ACN representative on the phone today and I asked questions about a possible alliance, the response was an emphatic 'NO' and I thought within my mind, is Ribadu not a PDP agent?
Crucify me, I said that.
Wole Temidire Aguda
13/04/2011
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